{"id":2622,"date":"2024-08-03T02:05:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-03T07:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=2622"},"modified":"2024-12-01T13:51:26","modified_gmt":"2024-12-01T18:51:26","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89-%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e8%b5%8c%e5%8d%9a%e9%a3%99%e5%8d%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=2622","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009: \u653f\u6cbb\u8d4c\u535a\u98d9\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ed6\u62bc\u6ce8\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9009\u62e9 JD Vance\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ade\u9009\u642d\u6863\uff0c\u8d62\u4e86 12,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u53c8\u62bc\u6ce8 40,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e54\u00b7\u62dc\u767b\u5c06\u9000\u51fa\u603b\u7edf\u7ade\u9009\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0cCaleb Davies 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\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u73b0\u5728\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u533a\u5206\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u548c\u4f60\u62bc\u6ce8\u5c06\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u575b\u4e00\u7247\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9047\u523a\u3001\u62dc\u767b\u9000\u51fa\u7ade\u9009\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6c11\u8c03\u652f\u6301\u7387\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u4e86\u80dc\u8d1f\u96be\u5206\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u6240\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u548c\u731c\u6d4b\u90fd\u8ba9\u66f4\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u628a\u94b1\u6295\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u731c\u6d4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u5c06\u9009\u62e9\u8c01\u62c5\u4efb\u526f\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u5230\u8c01\u5c06\u5728 11 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\u663e\u793a\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u5dde\u957f\u4e54\u4ec0\u00b7\u590f\u76ae\u7f57\u5728\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u4e2d\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u7387\u201c\u662f\u201d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a 70 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\u7684\u662f\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5dde\u5dde\u957f\u8482\u59c6\u00b7\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e3a 15 \u7f8e\u5206\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u8d1d\u5e0c\u5c14\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e3a 11 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5bf9\u4e8e 2024 \u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u83b7\u80dc\u8005\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a 53 \u7f8e\u5206\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e3a 50 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u51fa\u552e Walz<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53cc\u80de\u80ce\u5144\u5f1f\u5f7c\u5f97\u548c\u624e\u514b\u00b7\u6000\u7279\u4e00\u76f4\u8054\u624b\u5bf9\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u7684\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u4eba\u9009\u8fdb\u884c\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u5728 PredictIt \u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce8\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u4e92\u76f8\u53d1\u77ed\u4fe1\u8ba8\u8bba\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u65b0\u95fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u62dc\u767b\u5c06\u9000\u51fa\u7ade\u9009 600 \u7f8e\u5143\u540e\uff0c\u624e\u514b\u6700\u8fd1\u53c8\u62bc\u6ce8\u6c83\u5c14\u5179\u5c06\u5f53\u9009\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4f9d\u636e\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4f46\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed6\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u52bf\u5934\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u64a4\u56de\u4e86\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u901a\u5e38\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u5f00\u56db\u4e2a\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u603b\u8d4c\u6ce8\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc7 3,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4f4d 28 \u5c81\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8d4c\u67d0\u4eba\u4f1a\u8d62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u8d4c\u67d0\u4eba\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u4e9b\u611a\u8822\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u6da8 10% \u6216 20%\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u653f\u6cbb\u535a\u5f69\u5907\u53d7\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u65af\u5728\u5185\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4f46\u4fc3\u8fdb\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u975e\u8425\u5229\u7ec4\u7ec7 Better Markets \u603b\u88c1\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u51ef\u83b1\u8d6b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u6e38\u620f\u5316\u4f1a\u9f13\u52b1\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d4c\u535a\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u516c\u8bbe\u8fa9\u62a4\u5f8b\u5e08\u7279\u96f7\u5f17\u00b7\u535a\u514b\u66fc (Trevor Boeckmann) \u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u8d4c\u535a\u3002\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728 PredictIt \u4e0a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8d4c\u6ce8\u90fd\u8ba9\u4ed6\u8d5a\u4e86 43,000 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