{"id":6495,"date":"2024-11-28T02:38:10","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T07:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6495"},"modified":"2024-11-28T02:38:13","modified_gmt":"2024-11-28T07:38:13","slug":"jpmorgan-%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e4%ba%ba%e6%b0%91%e5%b8%81%e5%b0%86%e5%9c%a8%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93%e6%88%98%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%8b%e6%bb%9110-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6495","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan: \u9884\u8ba1\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e2d\u4e0b\u6ed110-15%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>JPMorgan\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a60%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9884\u8ba12025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ca\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c<em>China<\/em>&nbsp;\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5141\u8bb8\u5176\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c&nbsp;<strong>\u9ad8\u8fbe 10-15%<\/strong>\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf&nbsp;<em>Donald Trump<\/em>&nbsp;\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u8fce\u63a5\u98ce\u66b4\u201d\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6&nbsp;<em>Jahangir Aziz<\/em>&nbsp;\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u8868\u793a\uff0c<em>emerging economies<\/em>&nbsp;\u5c06\u53d7\u5230&nbsp;<em>Trump<\/em>&nbsp;\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7a0e\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u9884\u8ba1\u9488\u5bf9&nbsp;<em>China<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u6700\u65e9\u51fa\u73b0\u91cd\u5927\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u591a\u8bf4\uff0c<em>China<\/em>\u00a0\u5c06\u662f\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u201d<em>Aziz<\/em>\u00a0\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u8ba1\u5bf9\u00a0<em>China<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u00a060%\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u524d\u4e3a\u00a020%\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6f5c\u5728\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u00a02025\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4f7f\u589e\u957f\u4ece\u00a02024\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u00a04.8%\u00a0\u964d\u4f4e\u5230\u00a03.9%\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f3f3f3\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f3f3f3;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"554\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-338-1024x554.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6505 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-338-1024x554.webp 1024w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-338-300x162.webp 300w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-338-768x415.webp 768w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-338-png.webp 1085w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u6d4b\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u56e0\u5173\u7a0e\u800c\u8d2c\u503c\u00a010-15%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d2c\u503c\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u660e\u663e\u4f4e\u4e8e\u00a0<strong>28-30%<\/strong>\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u00a0<em>China<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u91cd\u6f14\u00a0<strong>2018-19<\/strong>\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u5267\u672c\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u00a0<strong>70%<\/strong>\u00a0\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c<em>Trump<\/em>\u00a0\u5728\u00a0<strong>2018<\/strong>\u00a0\u5e74\u5c06\u5bf9\u00a0<em>China<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u4ece\u00a0<strong>3%<\/strong>\u00a0\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230\u00a0<strong>20%<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u81ea&nbsp;<em>Trump<\/em>&nbsp;\u8d62\u5f97\u8fde\u4efb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u5cb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u7ea6&nbsp;<strong>1.4%<\/strong>\uff0c\u5468\u4e09\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a&nbsp;<strong>7.25<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b\u81ea&nbsp;<strong>7\u6708<\/strong>\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u5468\uff0c<em>Trump<\/em>&nbsp;\u53d1\u8a93\u8981\u5bf9\u6765\u81ea&nbsp;<em>Canada<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>Mexico<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8fdb\u53e3\u5f81\u6536&nbsp;<strong>25%<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u989d\u5916\u5f81\u6536&nbsp;<strong>10%<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002&nbsp;<em>Jamieson Greer<\/em>\uff0c\u4ed6\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u5728&nbsp;<em>Trump<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u5bf9&nbsp;<em>China<\/em>&nbsp;\u5f81\u6536\u5173\u7a0e\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u770b\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u6d4b\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\u5c06\u4f7f\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5728&nbsp;<strong>2025<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5e74\u964d\u81f3&nbsp;<strong>3.4%<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e3a&nbsp;<strong>4.1%<\/strong>\u3002\u201c<em>EM Asia<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>Mexico<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u4e5f\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u6253\u51fb\u2014\u2014<em>India<\/em>&nbsp;\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5c0f\uff0c<em>Malaysia<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>Vietnam<\/em>&nbsp;\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8ddf\u968f\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u4e8e\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6765\u81ea\u00a0<em>Bank of America Corp.<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8b66\u544a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u00a0<em>Trump<\/em>\u00a0\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u00a02025\u00a0\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u8d27\u5e01\u5c06\u5e73\u5747\u8d2c\u503c\u00a05%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=China\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Trump<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Aziz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jahangir Aziz<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=emerging-economies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">emerging economies<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=trade-war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trade war<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Morgan-Stanley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Morgan Stanley<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=tariffs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tariffs<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=currency-depreciation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">currency depreciation<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2025<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=economic-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">economic growth<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=EM-Asia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">EM Asia<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=India\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">India<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Malaysia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Malaysia<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Vietnam\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Vietnam<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Bank-of-America\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bank of America<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u53ef\u80fd\u8d2c\u503c10-15%\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9020\u6210\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u964d\u81f33.4%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6570\u636e\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u9884\u8ba1\u8d2c\u503c\u5e45\u5ea6:\u00a010-15%<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e:\u00a060%\uff08\u5f53\u524d\u4e3a\u00a020%\uff09<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2025\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b:\u00a03.9%\uff082024\u5e74\u4e3a\u00a04.8%\uff09<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a2025\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b:\u00a03.4%\uff08\u4eca\u5e74\u4e3a\u00a04.1%\uff09<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u81ea\u7279\u6717\u666e\u83b7\u80dc\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u7ea6\u00a0<strong>1.4%<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u8ba1\u5bf9\u00a0China\u00a0\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u00a060%\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u524d\u4e3a\u00a020%\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6f5c\u5728\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u00a02025\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4f7f\u589e\u957f\u4ece\u00a02024\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u00a04.8%\u00a0\u964d\u4f4e\u5230\u00a03.9%\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[345],"tags":[18,334,425,127],"class_list":["post-6495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-guo-nei-xin-wen","tag-18","tag-ren-min-bi","tag-guan-shui","tag-mao-yi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>JPMorgan: \u9884\u8ba1\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e2d\u4e0b\u6ed110-15% - DiaoMao<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6495\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"JPMorgan: \u9884\u8ba1\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e2d\u4e0b\u6ed110-15% - DiaoMao\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u9884\u8ba1\u5bf9\u00a0China\u00a0\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u00a060%\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u524d\u4e3a\u00a020%\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6f5c\u5728\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u00a02025\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4f7f\u589e\u957f\u4ece\u00a02024\u00a0\u5e74\u7684\u00a04.8%\u00a0\u964d\u4f4e\u5230\u00a03.9%\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\u3002\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6495\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"DiaoMao\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-28T07:38:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-28T07:38:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-338-png.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1085\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"587\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"sandeli4444\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@zhezhetalk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@zhezhetalk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"sandeli4444\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6495#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6495\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"sandeli4444\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/#\/schema\/person\/7013688eeb33fc17f3c38c452929766e\"},\"headline\":\"JPMorgan: 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