{"id":6587,"date":"2024-11-30T10:24:27","date_gmt":"2024-11-30T15:24:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6587"},"modified":"2024-11-30T10:24:30","modified_gmt":"2024-11-30T15:24:30","slug":"7%e4%b8%87%e4%ba%bf%e7%9a%84%e8%b5%84%e9%87%91-%e6%97%a0%e6%b3%95%e6%8b%af%e6%95%91%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6587","title":{"rendered":"$7\u4e07\u4ebf\u7684\u8d44\u91d1: \u65e0\u6cd5\u62ef\u6551\u725b\u5e02"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e94\u653e\u5f03\u5bf9\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u91d1\u73b0\u91d1\u8f6c\u5411\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u671f\u671b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u8c03\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5165<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e1a\u521a\u521a\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\uff0c<em>Crane Data<\/em>&nbsp;\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u91d1\u7c7b\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u603b\u989d\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684&nbsp;<strong>7 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u91d1\u989d\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u201c\u95f2\u7f6e\u73b0\u91d1\u201d\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u88ab\u91ca\u653e\u5230\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u52a8\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f7f\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u8fbe\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u70b9\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8c37\u6b4c\u641c\u7d22\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4ece&nbsp;<strong>1971<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u91d1\u521b\u5efa\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u90fd\u6fc0\u52b1\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u8c01\u4f1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u4e2d\u8ba9\u73b0\u91d1\u95f2\u7f6e\uff0c\u8d5a\u53d6\u7531\u6700\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u503a\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u7968\u636e\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5fae\u8584\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\u6709\u65e0\u5c3d\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u53ef\u5f97\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u8c03\u4e4b\u524d\u518d\u5c06\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u5e02\u573a\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f7f7f7\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f7f7f7;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"672\" height=\"413\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-367-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6591 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-367-png.webp 672w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-367-300x184.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u770b\u6da8\u4e86\u3002<em>Conference Board<\/em>\u00a0\u672c\u5468\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>56.4%\u00a0\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u80a1\u7968\u5c06\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u81ea\u00a01987\u00a0\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u00a0<em>Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u526f\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98\u00a0<strong>Dan Suzuki<\/strong>\u00a0\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u73b0\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\u00a0<strong>38%<\/strong>\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u80a1\u7968\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u5374\u6fc0\u589e\u4e86\u00a0<strong>50%<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u73b0\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u3002Suzuki \u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5bb6\u5ead\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u9000\u56de\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ee5\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u66b4\u9732\u79ef\u6781\u53c2\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u7c7b\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u725b\u5e02\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4fe1\u53f7\u53ef\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f0f5f8\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f0f5f8;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"663\" height=\"376\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-368-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6592 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-368-png.webp 663w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-368-300x170.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 663px) 100vw, 663px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u505c\u653e\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u91d1\u4e2d\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u4e3b\u8981\u8ddf\u968f\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u521b\u9020\u548c\u652f\u51fa\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u548c\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u5df2\u7ecf\u7206\u70b8\u6027\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6b63\u5982Suzuki\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u73b0\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u7ea6\u4e3a\u00a0<strong>18.4 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u505c\u653e\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u4e2d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u91d1\u989d\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u00a0<em>S&amp;P 500 Index<\/em>\u00a0\u6210\u5458\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u5408\u8ba1\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0e\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u95f2\u7f6e\u8d44\u91d1\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd1\u4e4e\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u00a0<strong>4.5% \u5230 5%<\/strong>\u00a0\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u7531\u4e8e\u00a0<em>Federal Reserve<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u800c\u591a\u5e74\u672a\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u6536\u76ca\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suzuki \u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u95f2\u7f6e\u73b0\u91d1\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u540c\u6837\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u73b0\u91d1\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u503a\u5238\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7\u00a0\u4e24\u5e74\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u4f60\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u725b\u5e02\u81ea&nbsp;<strong>2022<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5e74&nbsp;<strong>10<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6&nbsp;<em>S&amp;P 500<\/em>&nbsp;\u5728\u7ecf\u5386&nbsp;<strong>25%<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7684\u4e0b\u6ed1\u540e\u89e6\u5e95\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81ea&nbsp;<strong>2023<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5e74&nbsp;<strong>1<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5b83\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86&nbsp;<strong>2021<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5e74\u521b\u4e0b\u7684\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6309\u7167\u5386\u53f2\u6807\u51c6\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u80a1\u7968\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u9700\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9884\u671f\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u5e94\u5bc4\u5e0c\u671b\u4e8e\u67d0\u5806\u73b0\u91d1\u4f1a\u795e\u5947\u5730\u88ab\u6ce8\u5165\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Crane-Data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Crane Data<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E7%8E%B0%E9%87%91%E7%B1%BB%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u73b0\u91d1\u7c7b\u57fa\u91d1<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Conference-Board\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Conference Board<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Dan-Suzuki\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dan Suzuki<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=S&amp;P-500\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Federal-Reserve\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Federal Reserve<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%9B%BA%E5%AE%9A%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u5e02\u573a<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%AE%B6%E5%BA%AD%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E8%80%85\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5bb6\u5ead\u6295\u8d44\u8005<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u73b0\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u9000\u56de\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u53c2\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u672a\u6765\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u6f5c\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u53d7\u9650\u4e8e\u516c\u53f8\u6536\u76ca\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6570\u636e\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u91d1\u8d44\u4ea7\u603b\u989d\u8fbe\u00a0<strong>7 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>56.4% \u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u80a1\u7968\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4e3a\u81ea\u00a0<strong>1987<\/strong>\u00a0\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5bb6\u5ead\u603b\u73b0\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u7ea6\u4e3a\u00a018.4 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u505c\u653e\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u4e2d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u3002<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u73b0\u91d1\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8fbe\u5230\u00a0<strong>4.5% \u5230 5%<\/strong>\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u81ea\u00a0<strong>2022<\/strong>\u00a0\u5e74\u00a0<strong>10<\/strong>\u00a0\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u5386\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 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