{"id":6978,"date":"2024-12-04T03:12:12","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T08:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6978"},"modified":"2024-12-04T03:12:16","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T08:12:16","slug":"%e5%b7%b4%e8%a5%bf%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e-%e5%86%8d%e6%ac%a1%e8%b6%85%e5%87%ba%e9%a2%84%e6%9c%9f%ef%bc%8c%e6%b6%88%e8%b4%b9%e8%80%85%e6%94%af%e5%87%ba%e5%bc%ba%e5%8a%b2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=6978","title":{"rendered":"\u5df4\u897f\u7ecf\u6d4e: \u518d\u6b21\u8d85\u51fa\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u5f3a\u52b2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u957f0.9%\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62c5\u5fe7\u5df4\u897f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u518d\u6b21\u8d85\u51fa\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u9ad8\u4e8e\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5e76\u6270\u52a8\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5468\u4e8c\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c<strong>\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u57287\u6708\u81f39\u6708\u671f\u95f4\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u4e860.9%<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u5728\u53cc\u4f4d\u6570\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u9762\u524d\u4f9d\u7136\u575a\u633a\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u4f4e\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u603b\u7edf&nbsp;<em>Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva<\/em>&nbsp;\u6709\u7406\u7531\u58f0\u79f0\u4ed6\u6b63\u5728\u5151\u73b0\u6539\u5584\u5df4\u897f\u5de5\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u57282024\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u7684GDP\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u94b1\u653e\u5728\u5df4\u897f\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u201d\u8fd9\u4f4d\u5e7f\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u5de6\u7ffc\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u5728&nbsp;<em>X<\/em>&nbsp;\u4e0a\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u589e\u957f0.9%<\/strong>\uff0c\u5360\u5df4\u897f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8be5\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5de5\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u589e\u957f\u4e86<strong>0.6%<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5de5\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u5de5\u5382\u548c\u5efa\u7b51\u5de5\u5730\u4e0a\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u800c\u519c\u4e1a\u5219\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86<strong>0.9%<\/strong>\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u548c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u52a0\u5f3a\u5df4\u897f\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u81f3\u76ee\u6807\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u2014&nbsp;<em>Adriana Dupita<\/em>\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u548c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5c06\u653e\u7f13\u89c6\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52302026\u5e741\u6708\u5230\u671f\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u6389\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5728\u65e9\u76d8\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86<strong>20\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9<\/strong>\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u660e\u5e74\u672b\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d22\u653f\u7acb\u573a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u632b\u8d25\u611f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u629b\u552e\u672c\u5730\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u524a\u51cf**700\u4ebf\u96f7\u4e9a\u5c14\uff08\u7ea6\u5408115\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09**\u7684\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u8fdc\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u8be5\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5931\u671b\u5bfc\u81f4\u5df4\u897f\u80a1\u5e02\u906d\u53d7\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u8d27\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6c47\u7387\u8dcc\u81f3\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c<em>Lula<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fdb\u6b65\u65b9\u9488\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u6781\u9650\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u4ed6\u524d\u4e24\u5c4a\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u9009\u6c11\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d5e\u8a89\uff0c\u4f46\u622a\u81f310\u6708\u768412\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230GDP\u7684<strong>9.5%<\/strong>\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8981\u6c42\u653f\u5e9c\u7406\u987a\u516c\u5171\u8d26\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u8be5\u8d64\u5b57\u201c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6b64\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6765\u8bf4\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u201d\u00a0<em>Capital Economics<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u00a0<em>William Jackson<\/em>\u00a0\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7acb\u573a\u786e\u5b9e\u652f\u6301\u4e86GDP\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6697\u793a\u5176\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6269\u5f20<strong>1.5%<\/strong>\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0<strong>0.8%<\/strong>\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u63d0\u5347\u57fa\u51c6&nbsp;<em>Selic<\/em>&nbsp;\u5229\u7387\u2014\u2014\u73b0\u5728\u4e3a<strong>11.25%<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\u81f3<strong>3%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u73b0\u5728\u9884\u8ba1\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u5c06\u57282026\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95<\/strong>\u524d\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u53cc\u4f4d\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8fc4\u4eca\u672a\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u524a\u5f31&nbsp;<em>Lula<\/em>&nbsp;\u6700\u65b0\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e50\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u201c\u7d27\u7f29\u5468\u671f\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u9020\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u201d&nbsp;<em>Pantheon Macroeconomics<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6&nbsp;<em>Andres Abadia<\/em>&nbsp;\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u897f\u7ecf\u6d4e,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Luiz-Inacio-Lula-da-Silva\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Bloomberg-Economics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bloomberg Economics<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Capital-Economics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Capital Economics<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Pantheon-Macroeconomics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pantheon Macroeconomics<\/a>, \u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Selic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Selic<\/a>, \u5931\u4e1a\u7387, \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a, \u5de5\u4e1a, \u519c\u4e1a, \u6d88\u8d39, \u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa, \u901a\u80c0, \u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56, \u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56, \u8d64\u5b57, \u6295\u8d44\u8005, \u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u4e0d\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u9020\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6570\u636e\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u589e\u957f\uff1a0.9%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\uff1a0.9%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5de5\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u589e\u957f\uff1a0.6%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u519c\u4e1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff1a0.9%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\uff1a1.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u957f\uff1a0.8%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5f53\u524d\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff1a11.25%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u540d\u4e49\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5360GDP\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1a9.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9884\u8ba1\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u57282026\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u53cc\u4f4d\u6570\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 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