{"id":7031,"date":"2024-12-06T01:39:48","date_gmt":"2024-12-06T06:39:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=7031"},"modified":"2024-12-06T01:39:52","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T06:39:52","slug":"%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c-%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%b0%86%e8%bf%8e%e6%9d%a5%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e6%9d%a5%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%a7%e5%b9%85%e5%ba%a6%e7%9a%84%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=7031","title":{"rendered":"\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u94f6\u884c: \u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u8fce\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u606f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u501f\u6b3e\u6210\u672c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u75b2\u8f6f\u9700\u6c42<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u964d\u606f\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8d22\u653f\u63aa\u65bd<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5c06\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u8fdb\u884c\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5e76\u904f\u5236\u901a\u7f29\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u591a\u5bb6\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.<\/em>\u00a0\u548c\u00a0<em>Morgan Stanley<\/em>\u00a0\u7b49\u673a\u6784\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c<em>People\u2019s Bank of China<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u57282025\u5e74\u4e0b\u8c03\u00a040\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u81ea2015\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u65e5\u5386\u5e74\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u5e45\uff0c\u5c06\u4e03\u5929\u9006\u56de\u8d2d\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\u81f3\u00a0<strong>1.1%<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u00a0<strong>30\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9<\/strong>\u00a0\u7684\u964d\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c4\u6a21\u8fdc\u4e0d\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46<em>PBOC<\/em>\u00a0\u7406\u5e94\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u538b\u7f29\u94f6\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u521b\u4e0b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u51c0\u5229\u5dee\u2014\u2014\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e2d\u4f7f\u5176\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u635f\u5931\u7f13\u51b2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u4fe1\u8d37\u9700\u6c42\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4ec5\u9760\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u591f\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f3f3f3\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f3f3f3;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"671\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-84-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7037 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-84-png.webp 671w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-84-300x173.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 671px) 100vw, 671px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f<em>Pan Gongsheng<\/em>&nbsp;\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5df2\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u5728\u632f\u5174\u9762\u4e34\u589e\u957f\u6311\u6218\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u9762\u5c3d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u529b\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u6700\u957f\u7684\u901a\u7f29\u5468\u671f\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u501f\u8d37\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6210\u672c\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f<em>PBOC<\/em>&nbsp;\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u3002<em>Donald Trump<\/em>&nbsp;\u91cd\u8fd4\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5a01\u80c1\u7740\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u60c5\u51b5\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Goldman Sachs<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6<em>Hui Shan<\/em>\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u63d0\u5347\u9700\u6c42\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u201d\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u3002\u201c\u4e3a\u4e86\u62b5\u6d88\u6765\u81ea\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u5f31\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u589e\u957f\u9006\u98ce\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5bbd\u677e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u547c\u5401\u653f\u5e9c\u52a0\u5927\u501f\u8d37\u548c\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u5e76\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u63aa\u65bd\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u672c\u5468\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u9996\u6b21\u8dcc\u7834&nbsp;<strong>2%<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u768430\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e5f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5173\u7a0e\u51b2\u51fb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u6df1\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u7f29\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u96be\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5176\u4ea7\u54c1\u627e\u5230\u6d77\u5916\u4e70\u5bb6\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u51fa\u552e\u66f4\u591a\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6307\u6807\u2014\u2014\u6240\u8c13\u7684GDP\u5e73\u51cf\u6307\u6570\u2014\u2014\u81ea2023\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u4f4e\u4e8e\u96f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u501f\u6b3e\u6210\u672c\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>PBOC<\/em>\u00a0\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u51cf\u8f7b\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u878d\u8d44\u4ee5\u507f\u8fd8\u73b0\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f2f2f2\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f2f2f2;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"663\" height=\"414\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-83-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7036 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-83-png.webp 663w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-83-300x187.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 663px) 100vw, 663px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>PBOC<\/em>\u00a0\u4e0d\u613f\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u6fc0\u8fdb\u964d\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u62c5\u5fe7\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5982\u679c<em>Federal Reserve<\/em>\u00a0\u7ee7\u7eed\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u98ce\u9669\u5c06\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Fed<\/em>\u00a0\u5728\u4e5d\u6708\u542f\u52a8\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u672c\u6708\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5c06\u53d1\u5e032025\u5e74\u53ca\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Macquarie Group Ltd.<\/em>&nbsp;\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba<em>Larry Hu<\/em>\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u901a\u7f29\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u66f4\u5927\uff0c<em>PBOC<\/em>&nbsp;\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u6b64\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u4e5f\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u964d\u606f&nbsp;<strong>40\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9<\/strong>\u3002\u201c<em>Fed<\/em>&nbsp;\u5904\u4e8e\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u4e3a\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c<em>PBOC<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u964d\u606f\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u652f\u6301\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u62b5\u6d88\u6765\u81ea\u660e\u5e74\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u9884\u8ba1\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u957f\u9020\u6210\u7684&nbsp;<strong>0.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7684\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u679c\u65ad\u63aa\u65bd\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u610f\u613f\u3002\u5728\u4e5d\u6708\u4efd\uff0c<em>Pan<\/em>&nbsp;\u5c06\u4e03\u5929\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8c03&nbsp;<strong>20\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u81ea2022\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6bcf\u6b21\u4ec5\u4e0b\u8c03&nbsp;<strong>10\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u6210\u672c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<em>PBOC<\/em>\u00a0\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<em>Serena Zhou<\/em>\uff0c\u6765\u81ea* Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.* \u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d37\u6b3e\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u4e0b\u8c03\u00a0<strong>60\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Zhou<\/em>&nbsp;\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4fe1\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u201c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u201d\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fde\u7eed\u4e94\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u540d\u4e49GDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u538b\u7f29\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f2f2f2\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f2f2f2;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"668\" height=\"418\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-82-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7035 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-82-png.webp 668w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-82-300x188.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 668px) 100vw, 668px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E4%B8%AD%E5%A4%AE%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u964d\u606f<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E9%80%9A%E7%BC%A9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u901a\u7f29<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Goldman-Sachs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Goldman Sachs<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Morgan-Stanley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Morgan Stanley<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=People%E2%80%99s-Bank-of-China\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">People\u2019s Bank of China<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Pan-Gongsheng\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pan Gongsheng<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Donald-Trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Donald Trump<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%AE%8F%E8%A7%82%E5%AE%BD%E6%9D%BE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5b8f\u89c2\u5bbd\u677e<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6295\u8d44<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E4%BF%A1%E8%B4%B7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fe1\u8d37<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u623f\u5730\u4ea7<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%80%BA%E5%88%B8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5173\u7a0e<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=GDP%E5%B9%B3%E5%87%8F%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GDP\u5e73\u51cf\u6307\u6570<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Macquarie-Group\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Macquarie Group<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Mizuho-Securities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mizuho Securities<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 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