{"id":7308,"date":"2024-12-13T03:31:22","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T08:31:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=7308"},"modified":"2024-12-13T03:31:26","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T08:31:26","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e4%bf%a1%e5%bf%83-%e4%bf%9d%e6%8c%81%e4%b9%90%e8%a7%82%e4%b8%8e%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e8%a7%82%e7%82%b9%e4%b8%80%e8%87%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=7308","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u672c\u5546\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3: \u4fdd\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u89c2\u70b9\u4e00\u81f4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u5b9e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u94f6\u884c\u89c2\u70b9\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u793a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u65e5\u672c\u94f6\u884c\u4e0b\u5468\u52a0\u606f\u4ecd\u5f85\u89c2\u5bdf<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65e5\u672c\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4f9d\u7136\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u7b26\u5408<em>Bank of Japan<\/em>\u5728\u4e0b\u5468\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4eec\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u662f\u5426\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u610f\u89c1\u4e0d\u4e00\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e<em>BOJ<\/em>\u5468\u4e94\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5b63\u5ea6<em>Tankan<\/em>\u62a5\u544a\uff0c<strong>\u65e5\u672c\u6700\u5927\u5236\u9020\u5546\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\u572812\u6708\u4efd\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u81f314<\/strong>\u3002\u6700\u5927\u7684\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\u5219\u4ece34\u5fae\u964d\u81f333\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u66fe\u9884\u8ba1\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u8bfb\u6570\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u572813\uff0c\u800c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u5c06\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u81f333\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f5f5f5\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f5f5f5;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-193-1024x552.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7318 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-193-1024x552.webp 1024w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-193-300x162.webp 300w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-193-768x414.webp 768w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-193-png.webp 1208w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6b63\u6570\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e50\u89c2\u8005\u591a\u4e8e\u60b2\u89c2\u8005<\/strong>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5c0f\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u7684\u524d\u666f\u7565\u663e\u75b2\u8f6f\u6216\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>SMBC Nikko Securities<\/em>\u9996\u5e2d\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6<em>Yoshimasa Maruyama<\/em>\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e<em>BOJ<\/em>\u7684\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u7b26\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u672c\u6708\u907f\u514d\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u6025\u4e8e\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tankan<\/em>\u662f<em>BOJ<\/em>\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u572812\u670819\u65e5\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u524d\u5c06\u8981\u5ba1\u67e5\u7684\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u7ec4\u4e3b\u8981\u56fd\u5185\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9884\u671f<em>BOJ<\/em>\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u57281\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u800c\u975e12\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0b\u5468\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cBOJ\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5173\u6ce8\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u5173\u6307\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u663e\u793a\u4f01\u4e1a\u9884\u8ba1\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u57282%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u51cf\u5c11\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4fe1\u53f7\u2014\u2014\u53ea\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014\u2014&nbsp;<em>Taro Kimura<\/em>\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4f9d\u7136\u7a33\u56fa\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u671f\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e3a<strong>2.2%<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5468\u4e94\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u662f<em>Donald Trump<\/em>\u8d62\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\u9996\u4efd<em>Tankan<\/em>\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5ba3\u5e03\u8ba1\u5212\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u5236\u9020\u5546\u6709\u5de5\u5382\u3002\u5546\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5bf9\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9996\u6b21\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u5468\u4e94\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5c1a\u672a\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65e5\u672c\u5404\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u8ba1\u5212\u5728\u622a\u81f33\u6708\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\u5c06\u6295\u8d44\u589e\u52a0<strong>11.3%<\/strong>\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u6570\u636e\u7684<strong>10.6%<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Tankan<\/em>\u8fd8\u7ee7\u7eed\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f<em>BOJ<\/em>\u89c6\u4e3a\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6240\u6709\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u72b6\u51b5\u6307\u6570\u4e3a-36\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u81ea1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u660e\u663e\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u5e74\u534a\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u5de5\u4f1a\u6b63\u5728\u8981\u6c42\u660e\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u85aa\u8d44\u8c08\u5224\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u52a0\u85aa\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f4f4f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f4f4f4;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"662\" height=\"358\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-194-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7319 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-194-png.webp 662w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-194-300x162.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute<\/em>\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6<em>Nobuyasu Atago<\/em>\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c<em>BOJ<\/em>\u5df2\u8868\u793a\u5176\u51b3\u7b56\u5c06\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5f53\u524d\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a<em>BOJ<\/em>\u5e94\u8be5\u572812\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u60c5\u7eea\u6b63\u5728\u8f6c\u5411\u7b49\u5f85\u52301\u6708\u4efd\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a<em>BOJ<\/em>\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u65e5\u672c<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Bank-of-Japan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bank of Japan<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Tankan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Tankan<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%88%B6%E9%80%A0%E4%B8%9A\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5236\u9020\u4e1a<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E9%9D%9E%E5%88%B6%E9%80%A0%E4%B8%9A\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1a<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Yoshimasa-Maruyama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yoshimasa Maruyama<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Bloomberg-Economics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bloomberg Economics<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Donald-Trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Donald Trump<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Rakuten-Securities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rakuten Securities<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=Nobuyasu-Atago\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nobuyasu Atago<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u592e\u884c\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u57281\u6708\u800c\u975e12\u6708\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6570\u636e\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u65e5\u672c\u6700\u5927\u5236\u9020\u5546\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\uff1a14\uff08\u4e0a\u5347\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\uff1a33\uff08\u5fae\u964d\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u671f\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff1a2.2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8ba1\u5212\u589e\u957f\uff1a11.3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u4e1a\u72b6\u51b5\u6307\u6570\uff1a-36\uff08\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 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