{"id":7932,"date":"2025-01-05T00:16:15","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T05:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=7932"},"modified":"2025-01-05T00:16:18","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T05:16:18","slug":"merryn-talks-money-2025%e5%b9%b4%e5%9b%9b%e5%a4%a7%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e6%95%99%e8%ae%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=7932","title":{"rendered":"Merryn Talks Money: 2025\u5e74\u56db\u5927\u6295\u8d44\u6559\u8bad"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E5%9B%9E%E6%8A%A5%E5%B9%B6%E4%B8%8D%E6%AD%A3%E5%B8%B8\">\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u5e76\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u9884\u6d4b<strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>\u5c06\u8fce\u6765\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u4efd\uff08\u4ed6\u4eec\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u7a0d\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u592a\u591a\uff08<strong>\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c<\/strong>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u5747\u4e0a\u6da85.2%\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e5%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u4e00\u5e74\u4e4b\u4e2d\u5e02\u573a\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u76f8\u5f53\u7f55\u89c1\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u504f\u7231\u6781\u7aef\u3002\u6b63\u5982<strong>BCA Research<\/strong>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u53ea\u6709\u5927\u7ea6\u56db\u6210\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u5728\u6240\u6709\u5356\u65b9\u516c\u53f8\u4e3a\u660e\u5e74\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6392\u9664\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\uff08\u5373\u524d\u4e24\u548c\u540e\u4e24\u9884\u6d4b\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4e0b\u964d\u523017%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u5356\u65b9\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u4e0d\u5230\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u5e74\u4efd\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u80c6\u9884\u6d4b<strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u78345,500\uff08\u5982<strong>BCA<\/strong>\u6240\u505a\uff09\u6216\u4e0a\u6da8\u8d85\u8fc77,100\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e0a\u6da85-10%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u5192\u9669\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u5982<strong>BCA<\/strong>\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u53d1\u751f60%\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u53d1\u751f40%\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff01\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"42453a\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #42453a;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-34-1024x683.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7934 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-34-1024x683.webp 1024w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-34-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-34-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-34-png.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92%E5%9D%87%E5%80%BC%E6%98%AF%E6%AD%A3%E5%B8%B8%E7%8E%B0%E8%B1%A1\">\u56de\u5f52\u5747\u503c\u662f\u6b63\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u597d\u65f6\u5149\u5f88\u5c11\u4f1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002\u4f46\u574f\u65f6\u5149\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u56de\u5f52\u5747\u503c\u3002\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u70ed\u80a1\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<strong>Oaktree Capital<\/strong>\u7684<strong>Howard Marks<\/strong>\u57282012\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u6df1\u5165\u8ba8\u8bba\uff08\u8bf7\u8046\u542c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0e\u4ed6\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5ffd\u89c6\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\u7684\uff0c\u201d<strong>Marks<\/strong>\u8bf4\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u4f60\u591a\u4e48\u559c\u6b22\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u201c\u80af\u5b9a\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5371\u673a\u3002\u603b\u4f1a\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u56e0\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u770b\u4f3c\u65e0\u9650\u800c\u4e3a\u6fc0\u52a8\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u652f\u4ed8\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7b\u706d\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u603b\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6760\u6746\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u4eec\u906d\u53d7\u91cd\u5927\u635f\u5931\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u503c\u5f97\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u4f30\u503c\u9644\u8fd1\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4e14\u66f4\u591a\u7684<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead<\/strong>\u671f\u671b\u80a1\u5e02\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e<strong>\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab<\/strong>\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5904\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5185\u90e8\u4eba\u58eb\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u629b\u552e\u3002<strong>AI<\/strong>\u8fd8\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u5de5\u4f5c\u8981\u505a\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u4ee5\u5339\u914d\u5176\u4f30\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd8\u503c\u5f97\u9605\u8bfb\u8fd9\u672c\u7531\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u5e38\u9a7b<strong>Merryn Talks Money<\/strong>\u5609\u5bbe\uff09<strong>Russell Napier<\/strong>\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u5fc5\u8bfb\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u5178\u4e66\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bc1\u636e\u652f\u6301\u6240\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u5f52\u5747\u503c\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u52302025\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u843d\u540e\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e00\u4e9b\u575a\u6301\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Peel Hunt<\/strong>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6709\u201c\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u672a\u6765\u589e\u957f\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u6307\u6807\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u7ec8\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u6b21\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u4e2d\u65ec\uff0c<strong>\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong>\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5176\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u8fb9\u7f18\uff08\u67091692\u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff09\uff0c\u8fd0\u884c\u901f\u5ea6\u751a\u81f3\u4e0e1900-1924\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u7684+2.3%\u6bcf\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u62ec\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u548cGDP\u4e0b\u964d20%\u7684\u8ff7\u4f60\u8427\u6761\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684<strong>\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c<\/strong>\u56fe\u8868\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E6%9C%89%E6%97%B6%E5%80%99%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E4%B8%8D%E4%BC%9A%E5%A5%BD%E8%BD%AC\">\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u597d\u8f6c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e<strong>Jeremy Siegel<\/strong>1994\u5e74\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u957f\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u300b\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u575a\u6301\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u4f60\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u987e\u95ee\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u771f\u5b9e\u3002\u6b63\u5982<strong>Edward McQuarrie<\/strong>\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u796820\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5b58\u6b3e\u51ed\u8bc1\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5371\u9669\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u786e\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u4e14\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u5e78\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02<\/strong>\u7684\u4eba\u786e\u5b9e\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4fdd\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c<strong>McQuarrie<\/strong>\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u6848\u4f8b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6392\u9664\u6218\u4e89\u6495\u88c2\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u796820\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4e8f\u94b1\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u56fe\u8868\u663e\u793a\u4e86<strong>\u610f\u5927\u5229<\/strong>\u3001<strong>\u5965\u5730\u5229<\/strong>\u3001<strong>\u6cd5\u56fd<\/strong>\u3001<strong>\u65e5\u672c<\/strong>\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u7ec8\u5904\u4e8e\u4e8f\u635f\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u201c\u5f53\u4f60\u6295\u8d44\u80a1\u7968\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e<strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u591a\u6837\u5316\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8d4c\u6ce8\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u6301\u670920\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8d4c\u6ce8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E5%A6%82%E6%9E%9C%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E4%B8%8D%E4%B8%8A%E6%B6%A8%E8%A2%AB%E5%8A%A8%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E4%B8%8D%E5%86%8D%E8%83%9C%E5%87%BA\">\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u88ab\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u518d\u80dc\u51fa<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u4e0d\u5728<strong>McQuarrie<\/strong>\u768420\u5e74\u4e8f\u635f\u540d\u5355\u4e0a\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u957f\u671f\u5185\u4e0d\u5982\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u88ab\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u610f\u4e49\uff1f\u6700\u8fd1\u652f\u6301\u88ab\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u597d\u8bba\u70b9\u57fa\u4e8e<strong>Hendrik Bessembinder<\/strong>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e2a\u80a1\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u662f\u4e8f\u94b1\u7684\u3002\u81ea1926\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4ec5\u67094%\u7684\u4e2a\u80a1\u521b\u9020\u4e86<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02<\/strong>\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c1%\u7684\u4e2a\u80a1\u521b\u9020\u4e8690%\u7684\u80a1\u6743\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u6839\u636e<strong>BCA<\/strong>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e94\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u591a\u6837\u5316\u76ca\u5904\u7684\u9707\u64bc\u6027\u63d0\u9192\u201d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u5c11\u6570\u4e0a\u5e02\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5c06\u906d\u53d7\u8d85\u989d\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u770b\u5f85<strong>Bessembinder<\/strong>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e0e<strong>McQuarrie<\/strong>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u65b9\u9762\u572820\u5e74\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5728\u4f30\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff08\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ec5\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\uff09\u2014\u2014\u591a\u6837\u5316\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u592a\u5927\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u50cf<strong>Baillie Gifford<\/strong>\u90a3\u6837\u770b\u5f85\u5b83\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u5bb6\u603b\u90e8\u4f4d\u4e8e<strong>\u7231\u4e01\u5821<\/strong>\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c<strong>Bessembinder<\/strong>\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u63d0\u9192\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5927\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4e5f\u5e94\u201c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u62e5\u6709\u548c\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6700\u7ec8\u63a8\u52a8\u957f\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u6709\u6548\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86320%\uff0c<strong>Baillie Gifford<\/strong>\u7684\u65d7\u8230\u6295\u8d44\u4fe1\u6258<strong>Scottish Mortgage<\/strong>\u4ecd\u6bd4\u4e09\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\u4f4e30%\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u88ab\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u603b\u662f\u4f18\u4e8e\u4e3b\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6b63\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9ad8\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3001\u9ad8\u4e3b\u52a8\u4efd\u989d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u4f60\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u8981\u597d\u5f97\u591a\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679cBCA\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f60\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E4%B8%89%E4%BB%B6%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E5%85%B3%E6%B3%A8%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E6%83%85\">\u4e09\u4ef6\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u80a1\u4e1c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5174\u8d77<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728<strong>\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong>\uff0c<strong>LGT Wealth Management<\/strong>\u521a\u521a\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u4f20\u9012\u6295\u7968\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u7968\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8bb8\u591a<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u516c\u53f8\u5df2\u7ecf\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5bf9<strong>\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong>\u7684\u80a1\u4e1c\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u5411\u524d\u8fc8\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5408\u6cd5\u5185\u90e8\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5174\u8d77<\/strong>\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e3a\u76d1\u7ba1\u5c40(FCA)\u6b63\u5728\u5c31\u201c\u7528\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u79c1\u4eba\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u80a1\u5e02\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u78cb\u5546\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5947\u7279\u73b0\u8c61\uff1aFCA\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u5185\u90e8\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u5236\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u201c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u7981\u6b62\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u201d\u3002\u5f6dMatt Levine\u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4efd\u6765\u81ea<strong>\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c<\/strong>\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u9192\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u652f\u6301\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6bd4\u5176\u4e0a\u5e02\u540c\u7c7b\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u60f3\u4ece\u6bd4\u4f60\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4eba\u90a3\u91cc\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fd\u5bb6\u7535\u7f51\u2014\u2014\u5b9e\u65f6\u76d1\u63a7\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u5927\u81e3Ed Miliband\u6b63\u5728\u5168\u529b\u63a8\u8fdb\u51c0\u96f6\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u8fdb\u5c55\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u5173\u6ce8\u5b9e\u65f6\u7535\u529b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5668\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5267\u900f\uff1a\u98ce\u5927\u65f6\u8868\u73b0\u975e\u5e38\u597d\uff0c\u98ce\u5c0f\u65f6\u65f6\u5219\u76f8\u5f53\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3002\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u763e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E8%AF%8D\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u8bcd<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD\">\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=S-P-500\">S-P-500<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E5%BE%B7%E6%84%8F%E5%BF%97%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C\">\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=BCA-Research\">BCA-Research<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B\"><strong>\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u62a5\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u79bb\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7e41\u8363\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e94\u53c2\u8003\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u8bad\u5e76\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%91%98%E8%A6%81\"><strong>\u6570\u636e\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>\u5e74\u5747\u4e0a\u6da8\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a5.2%\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7684\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e5%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5e02\u573a\u4ec5\u7ea640%\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u56de\u62a5\u5728\u5356\u65b9\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u540e\u4e0b\u964d\u81f317%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong>\u5e02\u573a\u5904\u4e8e\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u7cdf\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e0e1900-1924\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u7684+2.3%\u76f8\u5f53\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Baillie Gifford<\/strong>\u7684\u65d7\u8230\u6295\u8d44\u4fe1\u6258<strong>Scottish Mortgage<\/strong>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86320%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u6bd4\u4e09\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\u4f4e30%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%8E%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8B%E9%A1%B9\"><strong>\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0e\u9700\u8981\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e8b\u9879<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8bc6\u522b\u9876\u5c16\u80a1\u7968\uff1a\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5177\u6709\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3cBaillie 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