{"id":8939,"date":"2025-03-09T01:26:06","date_gmt":"2025-03-09T06:26:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=8939"},"modified":"2025-03-09T01:26:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-09T06:26:09","slug":"%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97%e8%b4%a2%e5%af%8c%e6%9c%ba%e5%99%a8-%e8%bf%90%e8%bd%ac%e5%a4%b1%e7%81%b5%e5%bc%95%e5%8f%91%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%bf%a7%e8%99%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?p=8939","title":{"rendered":"\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8d22\u5bcc\u673a\u5668: \u8fd0\u8f6c\u5931\u7075\u5f15\u53d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5fe7\u8651"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u672c\u5468\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u81ea&nbsp;<strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8d27\u5e01\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8de8\u8d44\u4ea7\u635f\u5931\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u5173\u7a0e\u3001\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u591a\u5934\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u770b\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u7eaa\u8d26\u6237\u4f59\u989d\u7f29\u6c34,\u5e0c\u671b\u60c5\u51b5\u80fd\u591f\u597d\u8f6c\u3002\u540c\u65f6,\u4e00\u5c0f\u7fa4\u4f46\u58f0\u97f3\u54cd\u4eae\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u4e5f\u5728\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u573a\u52a8\u8361,\u62c5\u5fc3\u5176\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e,\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5e02\u573a\u6536\u76ca\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u611f\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u8fc7\u5927\u7684\u89d2\u8272,\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u652f\u6491\u6d88\u8d39\u3002<strong>Fed<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a,\u53bb\u5e74\u80a1\u6743\u6301\u6709\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684 64%,\u521b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7531\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6301\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a&#8221;\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94&#8221;,\u5373\u5f53\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e0a\u6da8\u65f6,\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4eba\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u5f00\u652f \u2014 \u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u538b\u529b\u65f6\u5219\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u867d\u7136\u76ee\u524d\u635f\u5931\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f15\u8d77\u6050\u614c,\u4f46\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77,\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u7ee7\u7eed\u5d29\u6e83,\u5b83\u4eec\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u9020\u6210\u7ecf\u6d4etrouble\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;\u80a1\u5e02\u5584\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765,\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u521b\u9020\u672a\u6765,&#8221;&nbsp;<strong>Leuthold Group<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98&nbsp;<strong>Doug Ramsey<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bf4,\u8fd9\u4f4d\u534e\u5c14\u8857 30 \u5e74\u7684\u8001\u5c06\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6295\u8d44\u57fa\u91d1\u4eca\u5e74\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e&nbsp;<strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>\u3002&#8221;\u6211\u4eec\u6000\u7591\u8fd9\u8f6e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u80fd\u5426\u627f\u53d7\u8d85\u8fc7 12-15% \u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u8c03\u6574\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f4f3f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f4f3f4;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-61-1024x553.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8958 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-61-1024x553.webp 1024w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-61-300x162.webp 300w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-61-768x415.webp 768w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-61-png.webp 1207w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u9876\u91cd\u578b\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u4e2d,\u6700\u5bcc\u6709\u7684 10% \u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a \u2014 \u5e76\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u80a1\u7968,\u4ef7\u503c\u7ea6 23 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143 \u2014 \u56e0\u6b64\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u51cf\u5c11\u6784\u6210\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684,<strong>Moody&#8217;s Analytics<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6&nbsp;<strong>Mark Zandi<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8868\u793a\u3002\u4ed6\u4f30\u8ba1,\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u6bcf\u51cf\u5c11 1 \u7f8e\u5143,\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d 2 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u4e27\u7684\u6570\u5b57,\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5468\u80a1\u5e02\u84b8\u53d1\u4e86 3.7 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143,\u800c\u6b64\u65f6\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7f13,\u4ece\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5230\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u75b2\u8f6f\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Zandi<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bf4:&#8221;\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6da8\u8dcc\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f3a\u5f31\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u5e02\u50cf\u8fd1\u671f\u629b\u552e\u6216\u8c03\u6574\u90a3\u6837\u5f88\u5feb\u53cd\u5f39,\u90a3\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc,\u5c06\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa,\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5176\u8131\u8f68\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u867d\u7136\u00a0S&amp;P 500\u00a0\u5468\u4e94\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8,\u5c1a\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u00a0Ramsey\u00a0\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u9608\u503c \u2014 \u4ece\u9ad8\u70b9\u4e0b\u8dcc 6% \u2014 \u4f46\u6570\u6708\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u9759\u5728\u51e0\u5929\u4e4b\u5185\u7a81\u7136\u88ab\u6253\u7834\u3002<\/strong>\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u7b49\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6fc0\u589e\u3002\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u8d28\u7591:\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u538b\u529b\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5728\u62e5\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e2d\u5f15\u8d77\u4e0d\u9002\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20,\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u88c1\u5458\u7b49\u672a\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u6240\u7b3c\u7f69\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f3f2f1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f3f2f1;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"650\" height=\"394\" src=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-62-png.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8959 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-62-png.webp 650w, https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-62-300x182.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u5468,\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u76f8\u5173\u516c\u544a\u88ab\u63d0\u5347\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u7834\u574f\u6027\u6c34\u5e73,\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u66b4\u8dcc\u548c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<strong>Fed<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e3b\u5e2d&nbsp;<strong>Jerome Powell<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5468\u4e94\u8868\u793a,\u5c3d\u7ba1\u503a\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u5bf9\u964d\u606f\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8,\u4f46\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b,\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6025\u4e8e\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80a1\u5e02\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86 2025 \u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4e00\u5468,<strong>Nasdaq Composite Index<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u5ea6\u8fdb\u5165 10% \u7684\u8c03\u6574\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u968f\u7740\u8ffd\u8e2a\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u56fd\u503a\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\u7684\u4e3b\u8981&nbsp;<strong>ETF<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5e73\u5747\u4e0b\u8dcc 2%,\u5e02\u573a\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u81ea 2023 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8de8\u8d44\u4ea7\u629b\u552e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80a1\u5e02\u66b4\u8dcc\u5c24\u5176\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765,\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u589e\u957f\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u80a1\u7968\u6301\u6709\u9a71\u52a8,\u56e0\u4e3a\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u70ed\u6f6e\u4e2d\u5f15\u9886\u80a1\u5e02\u7e41\u8363\u3002<strong>Gavekal Research<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5206\u6790\u5e08&nbsp;<strong>Kaixian Tan<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7f16\u5236\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a,\u5982\u679c\u6392\u9664\u8fd9\u4e00\u56e0\u7d20,\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\u57fa\u672c\u6301\u5e73\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4,\u5728\u623f\u4ef7\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u4e0d\u53ef\u6500\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b,\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tan<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bf4:&#8221;\u6211\u5e76\u4e0d\u592a\u62c5\u5fc3\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8,\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\u51fa\u73b0&#8217;\u66f4\u597d\u6545\u4e8b&#8217;\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027,\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5,\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u662f:\u6295\u673a\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u96be\u4ee5\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u5e01\u548c\u4e0e&nbsp;<strong>Tesla Inc.<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7b49\u5355\u4e00\u80a1\u7968\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u6760\u6746&nbsp;<strong>ETF<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2014 \u901a\u5e38\u53d7\u5e74\u8f7b\u548c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u559c\u7231\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u81f4\u5bcc\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4eca\u5e74\u5df2\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc7 50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u670d\u52a1\u516c\u53f8&nbsp;<strong>Financial Insyghts<\/strong>&nbsp;\u603b\u88c1&nbsp;<strong>Peter Atwater<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bf4:&#8221;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u540e\u6765\u8005\u6765\u8bf4,\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u632b\u6298,\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u521b\u4f24\u6027\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u503a\u5238\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u800c\u8a00,\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5c0f\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6c60 \u2014 \u5728\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u540d\u4e49\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a 3.7 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143 \u2014 \u4f46\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u53ca\u5176\u6ce2\u52a8\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u8868\u4eb2\u662f\u4e00\u7fa4\u7279\u522b\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u9886\u5730\u3002\u6839\u636e\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76,\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u548c\u5185\u534e\u8fbe\u5dde\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5c24\u5176\u660e\u663e\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53d1\u73b0,\u672a\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6536\u76ca\u6bcf\u589e\u52a0 1 \u7f8e\u5143,\u5176\u6240\u6709\u8005\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0 9 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u662f,\u5c3d\u7ba1\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u88ab\u524a\u51cf,\u4f46\u5171\u8bc6\u4f30\u8ba1\u4ecd\u6307\u5411\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u81ea\u53bb\u5e74 9 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u8c03\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b,\u73b0\u5728\u521a\u521a\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e86 2025 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href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF\">\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B\">\u9884\u6d4b<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc712-15%\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u9884\u8ba1\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%91%98%E8%A6%81\">\u6570\u636e\u6458\u8981<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul 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href=\"https:\/\/diaomao.cc\/?tag=QQQ\">QQQ<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; Invesco QQQ Trust 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